First World War Centennial

PREFACE

Many people still believe that present disturbed economic conditions will soon be adjusted, that problems will solve themselves—particularly if we refuse to look facts in the face and to admit that conditions are serious. It is urged that business is, after all, merely a matter of psychology and that if we will only banish pessimism and smile confidently though conditions look dark, everything will shortly auto­matically adjust itself. This economic hypnotism is supposed to have remarkable restorative powers notwith­standing the fact that such things as the foreign exchanges and national budgets have hitherto proved impervious to psychopathic suggestion. In any event, it is believed that time is still the great healer and that somehow or other the world will blunder through to "normalcy."

The purpose of this volume is: first, to determine the economic and political status of Europe at the present time; second, to appraise the probable effects of the international settlements (including reparations) that have recently been made; and third, to suggest in broad outlines an international policy such as it is believed the situation demands.

It is time that the United States cease drifting with reference to international affairs. It is time that we examine, in a spirit of scientific inquiry, the international economic and political situation as it stands today. It is time that we attempt to ascertain the probable results of recent political and economic developments in Europe. It is time that through study and discussion we begin to clarify our ideas and to formulate an American foreign policy—a policy, moreover, that will be directed not merely at this or that par­ticular issue as it arises, but that will be based upon a con­sideration of the entire international situation conceived as one problem. It is hoped that this volume may contribute something toward a clarification of the issues involved and, if ever so little, toward the formulation of such a policy.

The authors take this opportunity of expressing their in­debtedness to the host of people who through discussion and counsel have contributed to make the book of whatever merit it may be. We are particularly indebted for the information gathered in connection with the London meetings of the International Chamber of Commerce. In view of the rather striking conclusions that we have reached, it has proved a comfort to know that they are shared by many of the leaders of European economic thought.